PERT Simulations- How New Excel Functions Enable Transparency.

By -

We have been using complex statistical methods to answer questions like—what the probability of is completing a project in a given timeframe?  



We employed the critical path method, incorporating weighted average task durations and the standard deviation of each task, utilizing the mathematical formulas presented in our Project Management course materials.

The average project duration is the sum of all the average activity times along the critical path. 

Knowing the average project duration and the variances of activities along the critical path allowed us to calculate the probability of completing a project using standard statistical tables. 

If you are not well-versed in statistical concepts, the methods outlined in textbooks for project management may appear overly abstract and complex. In many situations, considering the possibility of alternative critical paths becomes crucial. This can lead to additional abstractions, making it challenging to comprehend.

The new Excel Functions make complex formulas more readable and efficient—a completely transparent and easy solution is achieved. The visualisation tools help us provide validation enabling us to look at the solution at a systems level.

Estimating PERT

    Drawing Frequency Chart





   



Whereas individual Tasks depending upon their 'm' values may be skewed, the estimated Project Durations is represented by normal (symmetrical) distributions  

You can download the Excel file by clicking here. The problem has been solved using both methods. You can attest firsthand to how it renders the old method seem outdated and unnecessary. The fans of the first principal method would prefer graduating to new Excel functions that allow a transparent and versatile method.   

Comments

  1. seep learnJuly 14, 2024 at 11:09 AM

    PERT Simulations
    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool used to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a project. PERT simulations involve the use of probabilistic estimates to model project timelines and assess risks, allowing project managers to make more informed decisions.

    Key Components of PERT:
    Task Estimation:

    Each task has three time estimates:
    Optimistic (O): The shortest time in which the task can be completed.
    Pessimistic (P): The longest time the task might take.
    Most Likely (M): The best guess of the time required, assuming normal circumstances.

    IEEE projects for cse

    final year projects for computer science

    Final Year Project Centers in Chennai

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Application for Making Parabolic Camber Board

By -
This Excel Application Calculates the Points for making a parabolic camber Board and draws a chart for the half road section profile. You are required to enter the road width and the % slope. The parabolic shape is given so that the profile is flat at the middle and steeper towards the edges, which is preferred by the fast moving vehicles as they have to frequently cross the crown line during overtaking operations.  on a two lane highway. Download Application here.
Read more

Indigenous Engineering Solutions in Construction, Green Buildings and Sustainability

By -
Image
Historically, Governments have been deriving the construction Industry. In India CPWD a premier construction agency, also performs a regulatory function in setting the pace and programmes for the building industry 1 . As a part of Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsava, a National Conference on "Indigenous Engineering Solutions in Construction of a self-Reliant India" was organised by the National CPWD Academy. Compendium of conference papers is now available on the National CPWD Academy's website.   
Read more

Excel Basics for Construction Professionals

By -
The following blog and attachments are on an Excel Workbook that I use for my introductory classroom sessions on Excel for Construction Professionals. In a time when social distancing is prescribed, it would be better if the tool makes one learn on its own. The present one still requires a class supplementation, and I need your perspective on making it more useful.
Read more